In a sobering assessment of the country’s economic health, Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee (NAC) has revealed that the economy fell short of its targeted growth for the financial year 2024–25. According to the latest figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by only 2.68%, significantly lower than the government’s target of 3.6%. This underperformance highlights deep-rooted structural issues in the economy, especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors, which failed to meet expectations.
Agricultural Sector Under Strain
One of the most alarming revelations in the NAC report is the sharp decline in agricultural output, which remains the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Agriculture not only employs a large segment of the population but also serves as the foundation for food security and raw materials for local industries.
While the overall agricultural sector posted a modest growth of 1.18%, this was largely due to the 4.89% increase in livestock production. In contrast, major crop production took a significant hit:
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Cotton output fell by 29.6%, despite being a critical cash crop for the textile industry.
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Maize production declined by 15.6%, disrupting feed and food markets.
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Sugarcane production shrank by 2.2%.
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Rice production dropped by 1.2%.
Several factors contributed to this disappointing performance: erratic weather patterns, water shortages, poor access to quality inputs, and a lack of modern agricultural techniques. Moreover, inadequate government support and delays in payments to farmers further weakened the sector’s resilience.
Industrial Sector Stagnation
The industrial sector also failed to recover, with a contraction of 1.03% recorded during the same fiscal year. Within this segment, the construction industry suffered a massive 14.91% decline, reflecting a slump in infrastructure projects and real estate development. The mining and quarrying sub-sector decreased by 6.49%, largely due to inefficiencies, regulatory hurdles, and a lack of foreign investment.
Even large-scale manufacturing(LSM), once seen as a growth engine, contracted by 0.82%, indicating weak demand, higher input costs, and energy supply disruptions. These results are worrying, especially in a country with a growing youth population and rising unemployment.
Services Sector: A Glimmer of Hope
On a relatively positive note, the services sector grew by 1.43%, showing resilience in certain sub-sectors such as health, education, and information and communications technology (ICT). However, not all areas of services performed well. Public administration and social security shrank by 4.49%, reflecting budget cuts and ongoing fiscal austerity measures under the country’s loan agreements with international financial institutions.
While the services sector’s growth is welcome, it is not sufficient to compensate for the weaknesses in agriculture and industry. Moreover, growth in services alone cannot generate the broad-based employment opportunities required to support Pakistan’s large and growing workforce.
Structural Challenges and Policy Implications
The NAC’s findings underline the structural imbalances in Pakistan’s economy. An overreliance on consumption, weak export performance, low investment in human capital, and underdeveloped infrastructure continue to hold the country back. Additionally, recurring macroeconomic instability—marked by high inflation, currency depreciation, and mounting debt—makes long-term planning and investment difficult.
The government faces the daunting challenge of reviving economic growth while managing fiscal discipline. Meeting upcoming International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions and securing external financing of $4.9 billion will be critical in the short term. However, in the long run, sustainable growth will depend on genuine reforms:
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Revitalizing agriculture through better water management, access to modern seeds and technologies, and improved farm-to-market infrastructure.
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Encouraging industrial productivity by simplifying regulations, enhancing energy reliability, and incentivizing value-added exports.
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Investing in education and vocational training to align the workforce with future needs.
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Strengthening governance and reducing corruption to restore investor confidence.
Conclusion
The latest NAC report is a wake-up call for policymakers, investors, and the public alike. The economy’s failure to meet even modest growth targets, particularly due to declines in agriculture and industry, shows that short-term fixes and ad hoc policies are no longer sufficient. Pakistan needs a comprehensive economic roadmap grounded in data, driven by innovation, and committed to inclusive growth.
If these challenges are not addressed with urgency and seriousness, the economy may continue to falter, deepening poverty and increasing vulnerability among its citizens. However, with the right reforms and political will, there remains hope for a more stable and prosperous economic future.
Reference: جی ڈی پی ہدف حاصل نہ ہو سکا،زرعی پیداوار میں نمایاں کمی ریکارڈ:نیشنل اکاؤنٹس کمیٹی